Yes, this. Most fraudsters don’t have such strongly held views on why the Kelly criterion for determining optimal bet size doesn’t apply to them! (SBF did a famous thread on this and Caroline’s tumblr has that line about how real EAs endorse high leverage and double-or-nothing flips).
I think it would be wrong to blame utilitarianism per se for what happened because the vast majority of utilitarians absolutely do care about the risk of ruin—as they should—but I think SBF’s own brand of EA-aligned thinking (I assume short AI/bioengineered pandemic timelines factored in here) played a huge role in why he took such insane risks.
Yes, this. Most fraudsters don’t have such strongly held views on why the Kelly criterion for determining optimal bet size doesn’t apply to them! (SBF did a famous thread on this and Caroline’s tumblr has that line about how real EAs endorse high leverage and double-or-nothing flips).
I think it would be wrong to blame utilitarianism per se for what happened because the vast majority of utilitarians absolutely do care about the risk of ruin—as they should—but I think SBF’s own brand of EA-aligned thinking (I assume short AI/bioengineered pandemic timelines factored in here) played a huge role in why he took such insane risks.