Tools for shaping probability intuitions. You can give a bunch of events, casual relationships or implications between them, and probabilities for each, or their conjunctions, or conditional probabilities for such things. The tool will infer what you don’t supply to the extent possible, and will point out contradictions in your conditional vs. absolute probabilities, and give you recommendations for how to resolve them.
Thanks for the link! I’m sure there’s a tonne of existing work in this area, and haven’t really evaluated to what extent this is already covered by it.
Tools for shaping probability intuitions. You can give a bunch of events, casual relationships or implications between them, and probabilities for each, or their conjunctions, or conditional probabilities for such things. The tool will infer what you don’t supply to the extent possible, and will point out contradictions in your conditional vs. absolute probabilities, and give you recommendations for how to resolve them.
Have you considered talking/​working with Sage on this? It sounds like something that would fit well with the other tools on https://​​www.quantifiedintuitions.org/​​
Thanks for the link! I’m sure there’s a tonne of existing work in this area, and haven’t really evaluated to what extent this is already covered by it.