TL;DR: It seems that Metaculus forecasters believe there is at least a >16-23% chance that our solar system could sustain an economy of at least 10^11 trillion 2020 USD, i.e. one billion times larger than the world economy today.
(This is a lower bound based on what Metaculus thinks there is a 16-23% chance of actually happening by 2200, and assuming that our solar system only accounts for 1⁄10,000th of the economy that Metaculus thinks will exist with that probability.)
On what basis do I make this inference?
19 forecasters on Metaculus currently give a 16% chance of GWP in 2200 being > 10^15 trillion 2020 USD:
12 forecasters on Metaculus (overlapping with the above 19) currently give a 23% chance of GWP in 2200 being >10^15 trillion 2020 USD (on this “big range” version of the question):
This roughly translates to a >16-23% chance that our solar system could sustain an economy
Such an economy might span roughly 10,000 stars if we have a fast takeoff scenario by 2050 and start colonizing our galactic neighborhood at near the the speed of light.
Naively then I’ll say that 1⁄10,000th of such an economy would be contained within our solar system to calculate a lower bound on how large our solar system’s economy can get:
It therefore seems that Metaculus forecasters believe there is at least a >16-23% chance that our solar system could sustain an economy of at least 10^11 trillion 2020 USD, i.e. one billion times larger than the world economy today. (This is a lower bound based on what Metaculus thinks there is a 16-23% chance of actually happening by 2200, and assuming that our solar system only accounts for 1⁄10,000th of the economy that Metaculus thinks will exist with that probability.)
TL;DR: It seems that Metaculus forecasters believe there is at least a >16-23% chance that our solar system could sustain an economy of at least 10^11 trillion 2020 USD, i.e. one billion times larger than the world economy today.
(This is a lower bound based on what Metaculus thinks there is a 16-23% chance of actually happening by 2200, and assuming that our solar system only accounts for 1⁄10,000th of the economy that Metaculus thinks will exist with that probability.)
On what basis do I make this inference?
19 forecasters on Metaculus currently give a 16% chance of GWP in 2200 being > 10^15 trillion 2020 USD:
12 forecasters on Metaculus (overlapping with the above 19) currently give a 23% chance of GWP in 2200 being >10^15 trillion 2020 USD (on this “big range” version of the question):
This roughly translates to a >16-23% chance that our solar system could sustain an economy
Such an economy might span roughly 10,000 stars if we have a fast takeoff scenario by 2050 and start colonizing our galactic neighborhood at near the the speed of light.
Naively then I’ll say that 1⁄10,000th of such an economy would be contained within our solar system to calculate a lower bound on how large our solar system’s economy can get:
It therefore seems that Metaculus forecasters believe there is at least a >16-23% chance that our solar system could sustain an economy of at least 10^11 trillion 2020 USD, i.e. one billion times larger than the world economy today. (This is a lower bound based on what Metaculus thinks there is a 16-23% chance of actually happening by 2200, and assuming that our solar system only accounts for 1⁄10,000th of the economy that Metaculus thinks will exist with that probability.)