taking the Rethink Priorities 7 − 15% numbers at face value, when the arguments for those AFAICT don’t even have particular models behind them
I’m interested to hear what you think the relevant difference is between the epistemic grounding of (1) these figures vs. (2) people’s P(doom)s, which are super common in LW discourse. I can imagine some differences, but the P(dooms) of alignment experts still seem very largely ass-pulled and yet also largely deferred-to.
I’m interested to hear what you think the relevant difference is between the epistemic grounding of (1) these figures vs. (2) people’s P(doom)s, which are super common in LW discourse. I can imagine some differences, but the P(dooms) of alignment experts still seem very largely ass-pulled and yet also largely deferred-to.