Is there actually an official IPCC position on how likely degrowth from climate impacts is? I had a vague sense that they were projecting a higher world gdp in 2100 than now, but when I tried to find evidence of this for 15 minutes or so, I couldn’t actually find any. (I’m aware that even if that is the official IPCC best-guess position that does not necessarily mean that climate experts are less worried about X-risk from climate than AI experts are about X-risk from AI.)
Yeah, I think the problem is surveying experts for their p(doom) isn’t something that has been done with climate experts AFAICT. (I’ll let you decide over whether this should be done or whether Mitchell is right and this methodology is bad to begin with.) But he stated the IPCC is planning to more extensively discuss degrowth in future reports.
Is there actually an official IPCC position on how likely degrowth from climate impacts is? I had a vague sense that they were projecting a higher world gdp in 2100 than now, but when I tried to find evidence of this for 15 minutes or so, I couldn’t actually find any. (I’m aware that even if that is the official IPCC best-guess position that does not necessarily mean that climate experts are less worried about X-risk from climate than AI experts are about X-risk from AI.)
Yeah, I think the problem is surveying experts for their p(doom) isn’t something that has been done with climate experts AFAICT. (I’ll let you decide over whether this should be done or whether Mitchell is right and this methodology is bad to begin with.) But he stated the IPCC is planning to more extensively discuss degrowth in future reports.