I think this depends on whether farmed or wild animal welfare matters more. I don’t have an answer, so let’s treat it as 50⁄50.
If wild animals matter more, what could happen? On the upside, AGI might enable us to help wild animals. On the downside, it might lead to humans creating biospheres on other planets, which would increase the suffering of wild animals by many orders of magnitude.
If farmed animals matter more, the upside could be that AGI enables us to substitute farmed animals completely (cultivated meat, etc.). The downside could be that people get richer and want to eat more meat, or that AGI changes the production of farmed animals in a way that increases suffering.
Again, I don’t know whether the upside or downside in each scenario is more likely. Let’s say each is 50⁄50 again. I think this makes 1) EV negative and 2) EV positive, with the aggregate being slightly EV negative.
If farmed animals matter more, the upside could be that AGI enables us to substitute farmed animals completely (cultivated meat, etc.).
Nitpick, but it seems unfair to consider this an upside rather than the mere absence of a downside, since the relevant counterfactual scenario, in expectation (if no AI safety work) is a misaligned AI that takes over and probably ends animal farming as it kills or disempowers humans.
AI safety cannot take the credit for a potential future reduction or end of farmed animal suffering if it preserves humanity, without which animal farming would not exist to begin with.
I think this depends on whether farmed or wild animal welfare matters more. I don’t have an answer, so let’s treat it as 50⁄50.
If wild animals matter more, what could happen? On the upside, AGI might enable us to help wild animals. On the downside, it might lead to humans creating biospheres on other planets, which would increase the suffering of wild animals by many orders of magnitude.
If farmed animals matter more, the upside could be that AGI enables us to substitute farmed animals completely (cultivated meat, etc.). The downside could be that people get richer and want to eat more meat, or that AGI changes the production of farmed animals in a way that increases suffering.
Again, I don’t know whether the upside or downside in each scenario is more likely. Let’s say each is 50⁄50 again. I think this makes 1) EV negative and 2) EV positive, with the aggregate being slightly EV negative.
Nitpick, but it seems unfair to consider this an upside rather than the mere absence of a downside, since the relevant counterfactual scenario, in expectation (if no AI safety work) is a misaligned AI that takes over and probably ends animal farming as it kills or disempowers humans.
AI safety cannot take the credit for a potential future reduction or end of farmed animal suffering if it preserves humanity, without which animal farming would not exist to begin with.