I think there are plenty of crucial sign-flipping considerations pointing both ways (sec. 1 of my post), and that our takes certainly fail to account for some of them, in ways that likely make these takes irrelevant.
And even if someone’s evaluation somehow does not omit a single crucial consideration, they have to make opaque judgment calls on how to weigh up the conflicting pieces of (theoretical and empirical) evidence. I see little reason to believe such judgment calls would do better than chance.
Clarification on what my “0% Agree” means: I confidently disagree that we should believe it’d go well for animals (sec. 1 of my post), but I don’t think we should believe the opposite either. I think our cause prio should not rely on any assumption on this question (sec. 2 of my post).
I think there are plenty of crucial sign-flipping considerations pointing both ways (sec. 1 of my post), and that our takes certainly fail to account for some of them, in ways that likely make these takes irrelevant.
And even if someone’s evaluation somehow does not omit a single crucial consideration, they have to make opaque judgment calls on how to weigh up the conflicting pieces of (theoretical and empirical) evidence. I see little reason to believe such judgment calls would do better than chance.
Clarification on what my “0% Agree” means: I confidently disagree that we should believe it’d go well for animals (sec. 1 of my post), but I don’t think we should believe the opposite either. I think our cause prio should not rely on any assumption on this question (sec. 2 of my post).