Are you engaging in motivated reasoning … or çommitting other reasoning fallacies?
I propose the following good epistemic check using Elicit.org’s “reason from one claim to another” tool
Whenever you have a theory that A→B
Feed this tool your theory, negating one side or the other[1] A→¬B
and/or ¬A→B
And see if any of the arguments it presents seem equally plausible to your arguments for A→B
If so, believe your arguments and conclusion less.
Caveat: the tool is not working great yet, and often requires a few rounds of iteration, selecting the better arguments and telling it “show me more like this”, or feeding it some arguments
Are you engaging in motivated reasoning … or çommitting other reasoning fallacies?
I propose the following good epistemic check using Elicit.org’s “reason from one claim to another” tool
Whenever you have a theory that A→B
Feed this tool your theory, negating one side or the other[1]
A→¬B
and/or
¬A→B
And see if any of the arguments it presents seem equally plausible to your arguments for A→B
If so, believe your arguments and conclusion less.
Caveat: the tool is not working great yet, and often requires a few rounds of iteration, selecting the better arguments and telling it “show me more like this”, or feeding it some arguments
Or the contrapositives of either