I totally agree on using distributions, that’s something that can be incorporated in, I’ve done so in other models/interfaces like here for cultured meat. It’s by no means straightforward though; the extent to which the uncertainty is dependent/correlated tends to make a big difference.
I guess I see the deterministic ‘model’ as more of an interface people could use as a starting point, playing around with each parameter interactively and getting a sense of how these disturbances would affect the aggregate forecast.
I totally agree on using distributions, that’s something that can be incorporated in, I’ve done so in other models/interfaces like here for cultured meat. It’s by no means straightforward though; the extent to which the uncertainty is dependent/correlated tends to make a big difference.
I guess I see the deterministic ‘model’ as more of an interface people could use as a starting point, playing around with each parameter interactively and getting a sense of how these disturbances would affect the aggregate forecast.