Some highlights: Solid participation, one cultivated-meat approval question already resolved, and a mixed bag of forecasts for animals.
Some good “news” for advocates: Forecasters give the Save Our Bacon Act 3% and the Canary Islands octopus farm 1%, expect about half of Europe’s top 20 grocers to have shrimp welfare commitments, and see in-ovo sexing spreading in the EU (~44% of layers) (but barely in the US ~3%).
Less good, especially for the US: ~80% for at least one more state cultivated-meat ban, 2% for plant-based reaching 10% of US retail by 2031, and low expected fulfillment of 2026 corporate chicken pledges.
But I think predicting the future doesn’t help much unless it informs decisions.
Help us: Who should we be sharing this with? What forecast would change a grant, campaign, or policy decision? Decisionmakers: what threshold matters, and what evidence would you need? Add your comments here, on that page, or DM.
Quick take only for now because this is basically a social media post:
Updates on the Animal Futures tournament in progress: https://uj-animal-futures-update.netlify.app/
Some highlights: Solid participation, one cultivated-meat approval question already resolved, and a mixed bag of forecasts for animals.
Some good “news” for advocates: Forecasters give the Save Our Bacon Act 3% and the Canary Islands octopus farm 1%, expect about half of Europe’s top 20 grocers to have shrimp welfare commitments, and see in-ovo sexing spreading in the EU (~44% of layers) (but barely in the US ~3%).
Less good, especially for the US: ~80% for at least one more state cultivated-meat ban, 2% for plant-based reaching 10% of US retail by 2031, and low expected fulfillment of 2026 corporate chicken pledges.
But I think predicting the future doesn’t help much unless it informs decisions.
Help us: Who should we be sharing this with? What forecast would change a grant, campaign, or policy decision? Decisionmakers: what threshold matters, and what evidence would you need? Add your comments here, on that page, or DM.
And you can still play: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/33016/
Metaculus Sentient Futures