Cosmic Threat [Severity of worst case scenario /10] [Probability of that scenario occurring in the next 100 years]Explanation of threat
Do you mean “probability of something at least as bad as that scenario occurring the next 100 years”? I am thinking that the severity distribution is continuous, such that the probability of discrete scenarios is 0.
Have you considered assessing the severity in terms of population loss? It would maybe be easier to interpret.
Yes good point, thank you. I have updated the post to clarify that the probability estimate is for a scenario as bad as the worst case.
I think that if I do it as severity in terms of population loss, it will be a lot harder to pin down. In the severity scores I’m also thinking about how badly it will affect our long term future, and how it affects the probability of other x-risks. So if I assessed it on population loss I might have to add other factors, and it might bit out of the scope of what I’m going for with the post. The severity estimates are fairly open to interpretation as I’ve done them, and I think that’s fine for this, which is an introduction/overview of cosmic threats.
Nice post, Jordan!
Do you mean “probability of something at least as bad as that scenario occurring the next 100 years”? I am thinking that the severity distribution is continuous, such that the probability of discrete scenarios is 0.
Have you considered assessing the severity in terms of population loss? It would maybe be easier to interpret.
Yes good point, thank you. I have updated the post to clarify that the probability estimate is for a scenario as bad as the worst case.
I think that if I do it as severity in terms of population loss, it will be a lot harder to pin down. In the severity scores I’m also thinking about how badly it will affect our long term future, and how it affects the probability of other x-risks. So if I assessed it on population loss I might have to add other factors, and it might bit out of the scope of what I’m going for with the post. The severity estimates are fairly open to interpretation as I’ve done them, and I think that’s fine for this, which is an introduction/overview of cosmic threats.
Thanks for the feedback :)