Thank you for your replies, Jamie, I appreciate the discussion. As a last point of clarification when you say ~40%, does this, for example, mean that if a priori I was uninformed on momentum v complacency and so put 50/50% credence on either possibility, that a series of case studies might potentially update you to 90/10%?
When I’m thinking about the value of social movement case studies compared to RCTs, I’m also thinking about their ability to provide evidence on the questions that I think are most important
I don’t disagree—but my point with this intuition pump is the strength of inference a case study, or even series of case studies, might provide on any one of those questions.
Yes to the first part! (I was also thinking something like: If you had read some of the other available evidence but not the historical case studies and had 70/30% credence, then reading the historical case studies might update your views to 30/70%. But that’s a bit messier.)
And got it with the second; I think we mostly agree there.
Ah, I see—in that case, it makes a lot of sense for you to pursue these case studies. I appreciate the time you invested to get to a double crux here, thanks!
Thank you for your replies, Jamie, I appreciate the discussion. As a last point of clarification when you say ~40%, does this, for example, mean that if a priori I was uninformed on momentum v complacency and so put 50/50% credence on either possibility, that a series of case studies might potentially update you to 90/10%?
I don’t disagree—but my point with this intuition pump is the strength of inference a case study, or even series of case studies, might provide on any one of those questions.
Yes to the first part! (I was also thinking something like: If you had read some of the other available evidence but not the historical case studies and had 70/30% credence, then reading the historical case studies might update your views to 30/70%. But that’s a bit messier.)
And got it with the second; I think we mostly agree there.
Ah, I see—in that case, it makes a lot of sense for you to pursue these case studies. I appreciate the time you invested to get to a double crux here, thanks!