I don’t like the formulation of 1 year because you can have recessions and then catchup or weird anomalous years.
Happy to bet that average gdp growth over next 10 years is <5%
I was thinking the same, a bet resistant to something like COVID + rebound would be more in the spirit of the argument.
Maybe gdp growth over previous all-time high?
Note the U.S. hasn’t had 10+% GDP growth since the great depression. But yeah I’d be happy to take some bets about this—north of 5% for instance.
I don’t like the formulation of 1 year because you can have recessions and then catchup or weird anomalous years.
Happy to bet that average gdp growth over next 10 years is <5%
I was thinking the same, a bet resistant to something like COVID + rebound would be more in the spirit of the argument.
Maybe gdp growth over previous all-time high?
Note the U.S. hasn’t had 10+% GDP growth since the great depression. But yeah I’d be happy to take some bets about this—north of 5% for instance.