First of all, the AI 2027 people disagree about the numbers. Lifland’s median is nearer to 2031. I have a good amount of uncertainty, so I wouldn’t be shocked if, say, we don’t get the intelligence explosion for a decadeish.
“you’ve predicted a 95-trillion-fold increase in AI research capacity under a ‘conservative scenario.’” is false. I was just giving that as an example of the rapid exponential growth.
So the answer, in short, is that I’m not very confident in extremely rapid growth within the next few years. I’d probably put +10% GDP growth by 2029 below 50%.
1. “First of all, the AI 2027 people disagree about the numbers”.
That’s irrelevant to your claim that you’d put “60% odds on the kind of growth depicted in AI 2027″
“you’ve predicted a 95-trillion-fold increase in AI research capacity under a ‘conservative scenario.’” is false. I was just giving that as an example of the rapid exponential growth.
Here’s what you wrote:
”This might sound outrageous, but remember: the number of AI models we can run is going up 25x per year! Once we reach human level, if those trends continue (and they show no signs of stopping) it will be as if the number of human researchers is going up 25x per year. 25x yearly increases is a 95-trillion-fold increase in a decade.”
You then go on to outline reasons why it would actually be faster than that. If you aren’t predicting this 95-trillion-fold increase, then either:
1. The trends do indeed show signs of stopping 2. The number of AI models you can run isn’t really going up 25x YOY
We can talk all day, but words are cheap. I’d much rather bet. Bets force you to get specific about what you actually believe. They make false predictions costly, true ones profitable. They signal what you actually believe, not what you think writing will get you the most status / clicks / views / shares etc.
What’s the minimum percentage chance of greater than 10% GDP growth in 2029 that you think is plausible given the trends you’re writing about and how much are you willing to bet at those odds? I’d rather bet on an earlier year, but I’d accept 2029 if that’s all you’ve got in you.
To be explicit, I’m trying to work out what you actually believe and what is just sensationalised.
Weirdly aggressive reply.
First of all, the AI 2027 people disagree about the numbers. Lifland’s median is nearer to 2031. I have a good amount of uncertainty, so I wouldn’t be shocked if, say, we don’t get the intelligence explosion for a decadeish.
“you’ve predicted a 95-trillion-fold increase in AI research capacity under a ‘conservative scenario.’” is false. I was just giving that as an example of the rapid exponential growth.
So the answer, in short, is that I’m not very confident in extremely rapid growth within the next few years. I’d probably put +10% GDP growth by 2029 below 50%.
To respond briefly:
1. “First of all, the AI 2027 people disagree about the numbers”.
That’s irrelevant to your claim that you’d put “60% odds on the kind of growth depicted in AI 2027″
“you’ve predicted a 95-trillion-fold increase in AI research capacity under a ‘conservative scenario.’” is false. I was just giving that as an example of the rapid exponential growth.
Here’s what you wrote:
”This might sound outrageous, but remember: the number of AI models we can run is going up 25x per year! Once we reach human level, if those trends continue (and they show no signs of stopping) it will be as if the number of human researchers is going up 25x per year. 25x yearly increases is a 95-trillion-fold increase in a decade.”
You then go on to outline reasons why it would actually be faster than that. If you aren’t predicting this 95-trillion-fold increase, then either:
1. The trends do indeed show signs of stopping
2. The number of AI models you can run isn’t really going up 25x YOY
We can talk all day, but words are cheap. I’d much rather bet. Bets force you to get specific about what you actually believe. They make false predictions costly, true ones profitable. They signal what you actually believe, not what you think writing will get you the most status / clicks / views / shares etc.
What’s the minimum percentage chance of greater than 10% GDP growth in 2029 that you think is plausible given the trends you’re writing about and how much are you willing to bet at those odds? I’d rather bet on an earlier year, but I’d accept 2029 if that’s all you’ve got in you.
To be explicit, I’m trying to work out what you actually believe and what is just sensationalised.