I always donate close to 100% to what I believe is most effective at any given time. I do “diversify” across time, though. Last year, I almost donated 100% to an Effective Giving organization. In the end, I decided against this, because (a) their average donor was giving mostly to global health and development, while I was thinking that AI safety would be more effective by a factor much larger than their multiplier, and (b) the multiplier effect probably shifts this balance even further against my preferences.
There is of course an argument that it is only a question of time until newly acquired donors board the train to “crazy town” and give to more speculative causes with higher EV. But I was working under the assumption that the multiplier effect probably mostly reaches a demographic that likely sticks to their existing world views.
I always donate close to 100% to what I believe is most effective at any given time. I do “diversify” across time, though. Last year, I almost donated 100% to an Effective Giving organization. In the end, I decided against this, because (a) their average donor was giving mostly to global health and development, while I was thinking that AI safety would be more effective by a factor much larger than their multiplier, and (b) the multiplier effect probably shifts this balance even further against my preferences.
There is of course an argument that it is only a question of time until newly acquired donors board the train to “crazy town” and give to more speculative causes with higher EV. But I was working under the assumption that the multiplier effect probably mostly reaches a demographic that likely sticks to their existing world views.