A much better order of operations would be to 1) try to negotiate with China to establish an international regulatory framework (plan A), with export control and other stuff being imposed as something that is explicitly linked to China not agreeing to that framework, in the same way sanctions on Russia are imposed explicitly because its aggression against Ukraine, and 2) only if they refuse, try to crush them (plan B).
Maybe if you are President of the United States you can first try the one thing, and then the other. But from the perspective of an individual, you have to assume there’s some probability of each of these plans (and other strategies) being executed, and that everything will be really messy (e.g., different actors having different strategies in mind, even within the US). Softening export controls seems like something you could do as part of executing Plan A, but as I mentioned above, it’s very unclear to me whether unilaterally doing so makes Plan A more likely to be the chosen strategy, and it does likely make Plan B and Plan C go worse.
When political will in the US to try for plan A is lacking, I think waiting until circumstances make that plan realistic while preparing the groundwork for it is a better strategy than going straight ahead for plan B.
I think you’re thinking people have more control over which strategy is adopted than I think they do? Or, what circumstances do you have in mind? Because waiting seems pretty costly.
But I think maybe the cruxiest bits are (a) I think export controls seem great in Plan B/C worlds, which seem much likelier than Plan A worlds, and (b) I think unilaterally easing export controls is unlikely to substantially affect the likelihood of Plan A happening (all else equal). It seems like you disagree with both, or at least with (b)?
“But I think maybe the cruxiest bits are (a) I think export controls seem great in Plan B/C worlds, which seem much likelier than Plan A worlds, and (b) I think unilaterally easing export controls is unlikely to substantially affect the likelihood of Plan A happening (all else equal). It seems like you disagree with both, or at least with (b)?”
Yep, this is pretty close to my views. I do disagree with (b), since I am afraid that controls might poison the well for future Plan A negotiations. As for (a), I don’t get how controls help with Plan C, and I don’t think Plan B/C worlds are much more likely than Plan A, as of now. But I do agree with you that controls help with Plan B, so if you see it as the main hope, I understand why you are supporting them.
Maybe if you are President of the United States you can first try the one thing, and then the other. But from the perspective of an individual, you have to assume there’s some probability of each of these plans (and other strategies) being executed, and that everything will be really messy (e.g., different actors having different strategies in mind, even within the US). Softening export controls seems like something you could do as part of executing Plan A, but as I mentioned above, it’s very unclear to me whether unilaterally doing so makes Plan A more likely to be the chosen strategy, and it does likely make Plan B and Plan C go worse.
I think you’re thinking people have more control over which strategy is adopted than I think they do? Or, what circumstances do you have in mind? Because waiting seems pretty costly.
But I think maybe the cruxiest bits are (a) I think export controls seem great in Plan B/C worlds, which seem much likelier than Plan A worlds, and (b) I think unilaterally easing export controls is unlikely to substantially affect the likelihood of Plan A happening (all else equal). It seems like you disagree with both, or at least with (b)?
“But I think maybe the cruxiest bits are (a) I think export controls seem great in Plan B/C worlds, which seem much likelier than Plan A worlds, and (b) I think unilaterally easing export controls is unlikely to substantially affect the likelihood of Plan A happening (all else equal). It seems like you disagree with both, or at least with (b)?”
Yep, this is pretty close to my views. I do disagree with (b), since I am afraid that controls might poison the well for future Plan A negotiations. As for (a), I don’t get how controls help with Plan C, and I don’t think Plan B/C worlds are much more likely than Plan A, as of now. But I do agree with you that controls help with Plan B, so if you see it as the main hope, I understand why you are supporting them.
(btw. how does one do a proper blockqoute here?)