Succinctly, beliefs should behave like a martingale, and the third and fourth graphs are probably not a martingale. It’s possible to update based on your expected evidence and still get graphs like in 3 or 4, but this means you’re in an actually unlikely world.
That said, I think it’s good to keep track of emotional updates as well as logical Bayesian ones, and those can behave however.
Succinctly, beliefs should behave like a martingale, and the third and fourth graphs are probably not a martingale. It’s possible to update based on your expected evidence and still get graphs like in 3 or 4, but this means you’re in an actually unlikely world.
That said, I think it’s good to keep track of emotional updates as well as logical Bayesian ones, and those can behave however.