I don’t think that “going silent” or failing to report donations is indication that people are not meeting the pledge. Nowadays I don’t pay GWWC as an organisation much / any attention, but I’m still donating 10% a year (and then some).
To be honest I haven’t read closely enough to understand where you do and don’t account for “quiet pledge-keepers” in your analysis, but I at least think stuff like this is just plain wrong:
total number of people ceasing reporting donations (and very likely ceasing keeping the pledge)
In this analysis, I’m looking specifically at people who do report donations that are distinctly and clearly inconsistent with pledge keeping. “Quiet pledge-keepers” who do not report any data would not be included in this analysis because they would not be reporting data to the EA Survey. So the phenomena I report here cannot be mere instances of quiet pledge-keeping.
As for the point “total number of people ceasing reporting donations (and very likely ceasing keeping the pledge)” which refers to GWWC analysis that may refer to quiet pledge-keeping, it is impossible to know to what degree people do or do not keep the pledge but fail to report it. My intuition, shared by others, is that people who don’t return GWWC’s emails asking for whether people keep the pledge are likely not keeping the pledge, but I agree there can be exceptions to this (such as maybe you) and that perhaps there are actually a lot of quiet pledge-keepers.
I don’t think that “going silent” or failing to report donations is indication that people are not meeting the pledge. Nowadays I don’t pay GWWC as an organisation much / any attention, but I’m still donating 10% a year (and then some).
To be honest I haven’t read closely enough to understand where you do and don’t account for “quiet pledge-keepers” in your analysis, but I at least think stuff like this is just plain wrong:
In this analysis, I’m looking specifically at people who do report donations that are distinctly and clearly inconsistent with pledge keeping. “Quiet pledge-keepers” who do not report any data would not be included in this analysis because they would not be reporting data to the EA Survey. So the phenomena I report here cannot be mere instances of quiet pledge-keeping.
As for the point “total number of people ceasing reporting donations (and very likely ceasing keeping the pledge)” which refers to GWWC analysis that may refer to quiet pledge-keeping, it is impossible to know to what degree people do or do not keep the pledge but fail to report it. My intuition, shared by others, is that people who don’t return GWWC’s emails asking for whether people keep the pledge are likely not keeping the pledge, but I agree there can be exceptions to this (such as maybe you) and that perhaps there are actually a lot of quiet pledge-keepers.