I’m the Chief Advisory Executive of IAPS. I’m also a top forecaster on Metaculus. Previously, I was a data scientist in industry for five years.
Understand+mitigate AI risk → safety+trust → AI adoption +innovation → good world
Peter Wildeford
Karma: 18,867
That’s fair—you’re right to make this distinction where I failed and I’m sorry. I think I have a good point but I got heated in describing it and strayed further from charitableness than I should. I regret that.
Thanks Linch. I appreciate the chance to step back here. So I want to apologize to @Austin and @Rachel Weinberg and @Saul Munn if I stressed them out with my comments. (Tagging means they’ll see it, right?)
I want to be very clear that while I disagree with some of the choices made, I have absolutely no ill will towards them or any other Manifest organizer, I very much want Manifold and Manifest to succeed, and I very much respect their rights to have their conference the way they want. If I see any of them I will be very warm and friendly and there’s really no need from me to talk about this further if they don’t want to. I hope we can be friends and engage productively in other areas—even if I don’t attend Manifest or trade on Manifold, I’d be happy to interact with them in other ways that don’t involve Hanania.
While I dislike Hanania’s ideas greatly, and I still think inviting Hanania was a mistake, and I still will not attend events or participate in places where Hanania is given a platform… I don’t want to practice guilt by association for those who do not hold Hanania’s detestable ideas. Just because someone interacted with him does not make them also bad people. I apologize for not being clear about this from the beginning and I regret that I may have lead people to think otherwise.
BTW I want to add—to all those who champion Hanania because they think free speech should mean that anyone should be able to be platformed without criticism or condemnation, Hanania is no ally to those principles:
Here’s Hanania:
I don’t feel particularly oppressed by leftists. They give me a lot more free speech than I would give them if the tables were turned. If I owned Twitter, I wouldn’t let feminists, trans activists, or socialists post. Why should I? They’re wrong about everything and bad for society. Twitter [pre-Musk] is a company that is overwhelmingly liberal, and I’m actually impressed they let me get away with the things I’ve been saying for this long.
Yeah, because there’s such a geographically clustered dichotomy in views between the London set and the SF set, it seems pretty important to me to give it 24 hours yeah.
Also just a general generic caution: we should know that this poll will mainly be seen by only the most active and most engaged people, which may not be representative enough to generalize.
I think the diurnal effect is real and is based on there being a lot of people in both the UK and the SF Bay Area that have opposite and geographically correlated views on this topic.
It’s pretty interesting that Hanania just happens to frequently make these kinds of accidents, right?
To be clear, I haven’t cut ties with anyone other than Manifold (and Hanania). Manifold is a very voluntary use of my non-professional time and I found the community to be exhausting. I have a right to decline to participate there, just as much as you have a right to participate there. There’s nothing controlling about this.
The precise quote for others to assess is “Daniel Penny getting charged. These people are animals, whether they’re harassing people in subways or walking around in suits.”
I was not at Manifest. And I’d like to be very clear that I totally respect Manifest’s right to host Hanania and make him a speaker.
I disagree with the decision and I would never do such a thing if I were King of Manifest, but I’m not King of Manifest and I am not trying to control anything about it. Notably, Manifest came and went, Hanania was there just fine and nothing happened, and all I did was exercise my right to not go and to complain about it to some friends. At no point did I ever do anything to attempt to cancel Manifest.
But since people took the conversation here to the EA Forum which I like and are trying to tell people that Hanania is fine actually, I’m now also going to complain about it here on my Forum.
I don’t think there’s any equivalence between any of the things I have ever said and the most vile things that Hanania / Chau / Yarvin has said. I don’t think it’s a matter of finding quotes and misinterpreting them. They’re pretty blatant. I’m quite confident you could audit my entire writing history and I’d stand by that.
And people don’t have a right to a platform near me. It’s not like they’re losing their job. Or even their blog or their book deal or their platform somewhere else. I just don’t want them to be near me.
~
You would just consider them to have been rightly deplatformed for being racist, whereas I would consider them to have been silenced due to things where reasonable people can disagree.
I’m curious—is there anything for you that reasonable people couldn’t disagree? Anything someone could say that would make them worth deplatforming, in your mind?
I disagree.
Firstly, you’re totally welcome to read, listen, or say what you want. I have never aimed to harm anyone through “cancel culture”, I have never called for anyone to lose their job, etc. My point is simple: if you’re thing involves calling black people animals, I don’t want that to happen anywhere near me. I’m not trying to control you, I’m trying to control my own surroundings. I think nearly all communities are better with some degree of moderation. But maybe you disagree. I’m fine for you to go your own way.
I’ve personally left Manifold over this after being a daily active user and putting a few thousand real dollars on the site. I’m fine to learn that Manifold is not for me. It’s sad, but I’ll move on. It would be really sad to learn that EA or the EA Forum is not for me. But I think we can exercise some degree of control as a community here about what we are and are not okay with. That’s a very normal thing for communities to do.
To be clear I think I would personally only aim to exclude Hanania, Chau, and Yarvin.
Ok, I’ll state for the record that I misunderstood that particular Hanania post. I’m sorry for that. But I still stand by Hanania being a provocateur who I do not want in any community I am a part of.
Ok, I’ll state for the record that I misunderstood that particular Hanania post. I’m sorry for that. But I still stand by Hanania being a provocateur who I do not want in any community I am a part of.
FWIW I’m quite confident it would be ~0%.
There’s some view here where anything from the slightest bit racist to the most overtly racist is all the same. I think we can create distinctions and I hope we can avoid the most overtly racist things.
And lots of great people who are interested and talented at forecasting don’t go, because they don’t want to be “balancing out”.
Which ideas are it that you find valuable that you think we’re proposing be excluded?
Super strong disagree here.
Platforming racist / sexist / antisemetic / transphobic / etc. views—what you call “bad” or “kooky” with scare quotes—doesn’t do anything to help other out-there ideas, like RCTs. It does the exact opposite! It associates good ideas with terrible ones.
The point of suggesting and platforming “kooky” ideas is for them to be heard and then evaluated. If these ideas had never been heard before, I think you’d have a point. But I have heard these ideas and I want no part of them.
Staying true to your epistemic should not mean that anything goes and we should platform anyone and everyone who has an idea, no matter how bad. Staying true to your epistemics requires a degree of quality control!
I agree with all this advice. I also want to emphasize that I think researchers ought to spend more time talking to people relevant to their work.
Once you’ve identified your target audience, spend a bunch of time talking to them at the beginning, middle, and end of the project. At the beginning learn and take into account their constraints, at the middle refine your ideas, and at the end actually try to get your research into action.
I think it’s not crazy to spend half of your time on the research project talking.