Good points! I broadly agree with your assessment Michael! I’m not at all sure how to judge whether Sagan’s alarmism was intentionally exaggerated or the result of unintentional poor methodology. And then, I think we need to admit that he was making the argument in a (supposedly) pretty impoverished research landscape on topics such as this. It’s only expected that researchers in a new field make mistakes that seem naive once the field is further developed.
I stand by my original point to celebrate Sagan > Petrov though. I’d rather celebrate (and learn from) someone who acted pretty effectively even though it was flawed in a complex situation, than someone who happened to be in the right place at the right time. I’m sill incredibly impressed by Petrov though! It’s just.. hard to replicate his impact.
Good points! I broadly agree with your assessment Michael! I’m not at all sure how to judge whether Sagan’s alarmism was intentionally exaggerated or the result of unintentional poor methodology. And then, I think we need to admit that he was making the argument in a (supposedly) pretty impoverished research landscape on topics such as this. It’s only expected that researchers in a new field make mistakes that seem naive once the field is further developed.
I stand by my original point to celebrate Sagan > Petrov though. I’d rather celebrate (and learn from) someone who acted pretty effectively even though it was flawed in a complex situation, than someone who happened to be in the right place at the right time. I’m sill incredibly impressed by Petrov though! It’s just.. hard to replicate his impact.