I think this post uses the term “Pascal’s mugging” incorrectly, and I’ve seen this mistake frequently so I thought I’d leave a comment.
Pascal’s mugging refers to scenarios with tiny probabilities (less than 1 in a trillion or so) of vast utilities (potentially higher than the largest utopia/dystopia that could be achieved in the reachable universe), and presents a decision-theoretic problem. Some discussion in Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: A Problem for Long-Termism? and Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence. Quoting from the first of those pieces:
Yet it would also be naive to say things like “Long-termists are victims of Pascal’s Mugging.”
I think the correct term for the issue you’re describing might be something like “cause robustness” or “conjunctive arguments” or similar.
Current theme: default
Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
Arrow keys: Next/previous image
Escape or click: Hide zoomed image
Space bar: Reset image size & position
Scroll to zoom in/out
(When zoomed in, drag to pan; double-click to close)
Keys shown in yellow (e.g., ]) are accesskeys, and require a browser-specific modifier key (or keys).
]
Keys shown in grey (e.g., ?) do not require any modifier keys.
?
Esc
h
f
a
m
v
c
r
q
t
u
o
,
.
/
s
n
e
;
Enter
[
\
k
i
l
=
-
0
′
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
→
↓
←
↑
Space
x
z
`
g
I think this post uses the term “Pascal’s mugging” incorrectly, and I’ve seen this mistake frequently so I thought I’d leave a comment.
Pascal’s mugging refers to scenarios with tiny probabilities (less than 1 in a trillion or so) of vast utilities (potentially higher than the largest utopia/dystopia that could be achieved in the reachable universe), and presents a decision-theoretic problem. Some discussion in Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities: A Problem for Long-Termism? and Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence. Quoting from the first of those pieces:
I think the correct term for the issue you’re describing might be something like “cause robustness” or “conjunctive arguments” or similar.