“Pens Down” to mean ‘Artificial Super Intelligence in my opinion is close enough that it no longer makes sense to work on whatever else I’m currently working on, because we’re about to undergo radical amounts of change very soon/quickly’.
For me, it is probably when we have something as powerful as GPT-4 except it is agentic and costs less than $100 / month. So, that looks like a digital personal assistant that can execute an instruction like “have a TV delivered for me by X date, under Y price and organise installation and wall mounting.”
This is obviously a question mainly for people who don’t work full time on AI Safety.
I don’t know if this can be answered in full-generality.
I suppose it comes down to things like: • Financial runway/back-up plans in case your prediction is wrong • Importance of what you’re doing now • Potential for impact in AI safety
What is your “Pens Down” moment?
“Pens Down” to mean ‘Artificial Super Intelligence in my opinion is close enough that it no longer makes sense to work on whatever else I’m currently working on, because we’re about to undergo radical amounts of change very soon/quickly’.
For me, it is probably when we have something as powerful as GPT-4 except it is agentic and costs less than $100 / month. So, that looks like a digital personal assistant that can execute an instruction like “have a TV delivered for me by X date, under Y price and organise installation and wall mounting.”
This is obviously a question mainly for people who don’t work full time on AI Safety.
I don’t know if this can be answered in full-generality.
I suppose it comes down to things like:
• Financial runway/back-up plans in case your prediction is wrong
• Importance of what you’re doing now
• Potential for impact in AI safety
I agree. I think it could be a useful exercise though to make the whole thing (ASI) less abstract.
I find it hard to reconcile that (1) I think we’re going to have AGI soon and (2) I haven’t made more significant life changes.
I don’t buy the argument that much shouldn’t change (at least, in my life).
Happy to talk that through if you’d like, though I’m kind of biased, so probably better to speak to someone who doesn’t have a horse in the race.
I suppose it is plausible for a person to never have a “Pens Down” moment if;
There is a FOOM
They feel they won’t be able to positively contribute to making ASI safe / slowing it down
I’m somewhat worried we’re only 2-3 years from this, FWIW. I’d give it a ~ 25% chance.