Vasco Grilo comments on Yanni Kyriacos’s Quick takes

[Vasco Grilo]

Thanks for sharing, Yanni, and it is really cool that you managed to get Australia’s Assistant Minister for Defence interested in creating an AI Safety Institute!

More on that can be found here.

Did you mean to include a link?

In 2020, it was estimated that an AI would pass university entrance exams by 2050.

The Metaculus’ question you link to involves meeting many conditions besides passing university exams:

For these purposes we will thus define “AI system” as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.

• Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Silver Prize.

• Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the Winograd Schema Challenge, e.g. the “Winogrande” challenge or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%

• Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year’s human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)

• Be able to learn the classic Atari game “Montezuma’s revenge” (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see closely-related question.)