Something I’m confused about: what is the threshold that needs meeting for the majority of people in the EA community to say something like “it would be better if EAs didn’t work at OpenAI”?
Imagining the following hypothetical scenarios over 2024⁄25, I can’t predict confidently whether they’d individually cause that response within EA?
Ten-fifteen more OpenAI staff quit for varied and unclear reasons. No public info is gained outside of rumours
There is another board shakeup because senior leaders seem worried about Altman. Altman stays on
Superalignment team is disbanded
OpenAI doesn’t let UK or US AISI’s safety test GPT5/6 before release
There are strong rumours they’ve achieved weakly general AGI internally at end of 2025
Something I’m confused about: what is the threshold that needs meeting for the majority of people in the EA community to say something like “it would be better if EAs didn’t work at OpenAI”?
Imagining the following hypothetical scenarios over 2024⁄25, I can’t predict confidently whether they’d individually cause that response within EA?
Ten-fifteen more OpenAI staff quit for varied and unclear reasons. No public info is gained outside of rumours
There is another board shakeup because senior leaders seem worried about Altman. Altman stays on
Superalignment team is disbanded
OpenAI doesn’t let UK or US AISI’s safety test GPT5/6 before release
There are strong rumours they’ve achieved weakly general AGI internally at end of 2025
A concrete prediction − 60% chance 80k doesn’t list any jobs at OpenAI in 2026.