Actually, I’d suggest just taking a random sample from the FB group. My guess is that your positive connections should be taken into account in this bet Gleb—if you’ve personally had a significant positive impact on many people’s lives in the movement (and helped them be better effective altruists) then that’s something this is trying to measure.
Also, 10 seems like a small sample, 20 seems better.
Regarding positive connections, the claim made by Oliver is what we’re trying to measure—that I made “significantly worse” the experience of being a member of the EA community for “something like 80%” of the people there. I had not made any claims about my positive connections.
After some private conversation with Carl Shulman, who thinks that I am miscalibrated on this, and whose reasoning I trust quite a bit, I have updated away from me winning a bet with the words “significantly worse” and also think it’s probably unlikely I would win a bet with 8⁄10, instead of 7⁄10.
I have however taken on a bet with Carl with the exact wording I supplied below, i.e. with the words “net negative” and 7⁄10. Though given Carl’s track record of winning bets, I feel a feeling of doom about the outcome of that bet, and on some level expect to lose that bet as well.
At this point, my epistemic status on this is definitely more confused, and I assign significant probability to me overestimating the degree to which people will report that have InIn or Gleb had a negative impact on their experience (though I am even more confused whether I am just updating about people’s reports, or the actual effects on the EA community, both of which seem like plausible candidates to me).
FYI my initial reaction was that people in the community would feel very averse to being so boldly critical, and want to be charitable to InIn (as they’ve been doing for years).
Actually, I’d suggest just taking a random sample from the FB group. My guess is that your positive connections should be taken into account in this bet Gleb—if you’ve personally had a significant positive impact on many people’s lives in the movement (and helped them be better effective altruists) then that’s something this is trying to measure.
Also, 10 seems like a small sample, 20 seems better.
I’m fine taking a random sample of 20 people.
Regarding positive connections, the claim made by Oliver is what we’re trying to measure—that I made “significantly worse” the experience of being a member of the EA community for “something like 80%” of the people there. I had not made any claims about my positive connections.
After some private conversation with Carl Shulman, who thinks that I am miscalibrated on this, and whose reasoning I trust quite a bit, I have updated away from me winning a bet with the words “significantly worse” and also think it’s probably unlikely I would win a bet with 8⁄10, instead of 7⁄10.
I have however taken on a bet with Carl with the exact wording I supplied below, i.e. with the words “net negative” and 7⁄10. Though given Carl’s track record of winning bets, I feel a feeling of doom about the outcome of that bet, and on some level expect to lose that bet as well.
At this point, my epistemic status on this is definitely more confused, and I assign significant probability to me overestimating the degree to which people will report that have InIn or Gleb had a negative impact on their experience (though I am even more confused whether I am just updating about people’s reports, or the actual effects on the EA community, both of which seem like plausible candidates to me).
FYI my initial reaction was that people in the community would feel very averse to being so boldly critical, and want to be charitable to InIn (as they’ve been doing for years).