The post helped me understand how the long-term effects of near-term interventions dominate their total impact, even in expectation (as suggested in this talk).
As a result, I am now more inclined towards longtermism, which tends to focus explicitly on the long-term effects.
In my mind, optimising for the long-term tends to be better to achieve good results in the long-term, and therefore I am sceptical that near-termist interventions could outperform long-termist interventions.
I updated towards donating to long-term causes (although most of my donations were already going to the EA Long-term Fund and EA Infrastructure Fund).
I updated towards working on long-term causes and global priorities research.
My updates:
The post helped me understand how the long-term effects of near-term interventions dominate their total impact, even in expectation (as suggested in this talk).
As a result, I am now more inclined towards longtermism, which tends to focus explicitly on the long-term effects.
In my mind, optimising for the long-term tends to be better to achieve good results in the long-term, and therefore I am sceptical that near-termist interventions could outperform long-termist interventions.
I updated towards donating to long-term causes (although most of my donations were already going to the EA Long-term Fund and EA Infrastructure Fund).
I updated towards working on long-term causes and global priorities research.