I have a post coming up soon on public opinion on this question, not that it tells us what a well-researched estimate would be. As a follow-up it could be worth investigating whether presenting people with a number (if any knowledgeable researchers can be persuaded to give one) is makes a difference compared with presenting a similar argument without a numerical risk estimate, in terms of people thinking the issue is important or supporting or taking an action to address it.
I have a post coming up soon on public opinion on this question, not that it tells us what a well-researched estimate would be. As a follow-up it could be worth investigating whether presenting people with a number (if any knowledgeable researchers can be persuaded to give one) is makes a difference compared with presenting a similar argument without a numerical risk estimate, in terms of people thinking the issue is important or supporting or taking an action to address it.