If we’re really uncertain how to quantify the risks, why do we do it (in everyday conversation)?
-Gregory’s comment suggests that precisely quantifying the risks doesn’t matter for far future arguments.
-People could argue with the numbers we use rather than the actually logic—precisely defining a % chance of extinction could pull focus from more important arguments.
-Using numbers that seem precise (eg 10%) may signal a degree of certainty that we can’t back up. Using numbers carelessly isn’t something we want to be known for.
Perhaps the answer is to avoid quantifying the risk.
If we’re really uncertain how to quantify the risks, why do we do it (in everyday conversation)?
-Gregory’s comment suggests that precisely quantifying the risks doesn’t matter for far future arguments.
-People could argue with the numbers we use rather than the actually logic—precisely defining a % chance of extinction could pull focus from more important arguments.
-Using numbers that seem precise (eg 10%) may signal a degree of certainty that we can’t back up. Using numbers carelessly isn’t something we want to be known for.
Perhaps the answer is to avoid quantifying the risk.