″...the existence of super-forecasters themselves argues for a non-modest epistemology...”
I don’t see how. No theory on offer argues that everyone is an epistemic peer. All theories predict some people have better judgement and will be reliably able to produce better guesses.
As a result I think superforecasters should usually pay little attention to the predictions of non-superforecasters (unless it’s a question on which expertise pays few dividends).
″...the existence of super-forecasters themselves argues for a non-modest epistemology...”
I don’t see how. No theory on offer argues that everyone is an epistemic peer. All theories predict some people have better judgement and will be reliably able to produce better guesses.
As a result I think superforecasters should usually pay little attention to the predictions of non-superforecasters (unless it’s a question on which expertise pays few dividends).