I think beating the uhhh ‘market’ is a lot easier than the EMH friends think. But its not exactly easy being a +EV ‘gambler’/speculative-investor. Your counterparites usually aren’t total idiots*. You are better off passing unless you think a bet is both really good and you can get in at least decent money. Its good policy to restrict your attention to only cases which plausibly fulfill both conditions**.
Ad hoc bets also have a very serious adverse selection problem. And in some cases betting people in private when they are being morons makes me feel predatory. I was chatting someone who I know is a lot poorer than me about SBF. He thought there was only a 20% of SBF being arrested by the end of 2023! He offered to bet. I felt predatory taking his money, especially since I knew he had less money than me. I just told him he would look bad shortly. SBF was arrested a few weeks later.
*If they think Trump is currently the secret president they are idiots. But I think those guys ran out of money and gave up.
**Exceptions exist like absurdly +EV intro offers on sportsbetting sites which might be limited to 1500 but pay you like 700dollars in EV for under an hour of work.
I think beating the uhhh ‘market’ is a lot easier than the EMH friends think. But its not exactly easy being a +EV ‘gambler’/speculative-investor. Your counterparites usually aren’t total idiots*. You are better off passing unless you think a bet is both really good and you can get in at least decent money. Its good policy to restrict your attention to only cases which plausibly fulfill both conditions**.
Ad hoc bets also have a very serious adverse selection problem. And in some cases betting people in private when they are being morons makes me feel predatory. I was chatting someone who I know is a lot poorer than me about SBF. He thought there was only a 20% of SBF being arrested by the end of 2023! He offered to bet. I felt predatory taking his money, especially since I knew he had less money than me. I just told him he would look bad shortly. SBF was arrested a few weeks later.
*If they think Trump is currently the secret president they are idiots. But I think those guys ran out of money and gave up.
**Exceptions exist like absurdly +EV intro offers on sportsbetting sites which might be limited to 1500 but pay you like 700dollars in EV for under an hour of work.