At the risk of repeating myself, I think that there is an important point here where most potential bet offers are going to be people ambiguously using the word “I’d bet” in a somewhat metaphorical world. And in that state of the world, I’m not going to go around trying to accept other people’s potential bet offers, because most of the time people will chicken out. This makes the signal of using “I’d bet” much weaker, meaning that there aren’t any downsides to using it metaphorically, which leads to a downward spiral where it loses the signal.
The alternative would be to have an unambiguous way of saying that you are willing to put money behind your belief. Having a norm of using “I’d bet” non-metaphorically would be one such way, but I’m open to others.
At the risk of repeating myself, I think that there is an important point here where most potential bet offers are going to be people ambiguously using the word “I’d bet” in a somewhat metaphorical world. And in that state of the world, I’m not going to go around trying to accept other people’s potential bet offers, because most of the time people will chicken out. This makes the signal of using “I’d bet” much weaker, meaning that there aren’t any downsides to using it metaphorically, which leads to a downward spiral where it loses the signal.
The alternative would be to have an unambiguous way of saying that you are willing to put money behind your belief. Having a norm of using “I’d bet” non-metaphorically would be one such way, but I’m open to others.