RSS

NunoSempere

Karma: 4,057

I do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI).

I’m also a hobbyst forecaster: I am LokiOdinevich on GoodJudgementOpen, and Loki on CSET-Foretell. I have been running a Forecasting Newsletter since April 2020, and have written Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms. I also generally enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs.

I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. A good fraction of my research is available either on the EA Forum or on nunosempere.github.io.

I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do “independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term.”

Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 and 2019, and SPARC during 2020; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: De­cem­ber 2021

NunoSempere10 Jan 2022 19:34 UTC
37 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets in The Cor­po­rate Setting

NunoSempere31 Dec 2021 17:10 UTC
74 points
12 comments33 min readEA link