The SlateStarCodex survey data is useful to answer a limited form of that question (a comparison with other SSC-survey answerers).
Code here, in R, may be useful.
NunoSempere
Karma: 534
New Top EA Cause: International Supply Chain Accountability
CoronaVirus and Famine
The Good Judgement Open forecasting tournament gives a 66% chance for the answer to “Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?”
I think that the 66% is a slight overestimate. But nonetheless, if a famine does hit, it would be terrible, as other countries might not be able to spare enough attention due to the current pandemic.
https://ourworldindata.org/what-does-a-famine-declaration-declare
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1559-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-ethiopia-kenya-somalia-tanzania-or-uganda-in-2020 (registration needed to see)
It is not clear to me what an altruist who realizes that can do, as an individual:
A famine is likely to hit this region (but hasn’t hit yet)
It is likely to be particularly bad.
Donating to the World Food Programme, which is already doing work on the matter, might be a promising answer, but I haven’t evaluated the programe, nor compared it to other potentially promising options (see here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wpaZRoLFJy8DynwQN/the-best-places-to-donate-for-covid-19, or https://www.againstmalaria.com/)
Interesting. Reminds me of this post by Paul Christiano on moral public goods
The classical answer to this is that altruism towards strangers is not evolutionarily adaptative. This is because the altruistic give ressources benefit their own and others’ descendants equally, while the nonaltruistic also get those benefits for their descendants without having to pay the cost. See also the tragic story of George R. Price.
Either / Both
Testing shortform
NunoSempere’s Shortform
Whatever happened to the Technology Assessment movement?
… In the early 70s, there was an academic Technology Assessment movement. They wanted to do detailed analysis of incoming technologies, and figure out how technological development could be planned, developed in a better order, and at a better rate. This is relevant not only to EAs who care about tech risks, but also to anyone who cares about tech and its impacts in general… (source)
How useful is reducing animal farming for reducing pandemic risk?
Question taken from: here
Is there a point at which “maximizing total impact” and “doing the most cost-effective things” start being subtly different? How does it look like when that happens?
From this list of project ideas
What creates effective social movements?
Kerry Vaughan
“Social movements like effective altruism have the potential to unlock the abilities of large numbers of people by making it easier for them to coordinate and by providing social infrastructure to support altruistic activities. Yet, our understanding of what makes social movements effective or how to improve them is poor. Of particular interest is research into what makes social movements collapse and how to prevent the collapse of valuable movements. Conducting solid research and figuring out how to use its findings could be a multiplier of the EA movements as a whole.”
What are the longest lasting social movements, and do they have any shared characteristics? Similarly. what is the half-time of a social movement, or the average duration of one?
What are the top 10 social movements nearest in think-space to EA, and did they succeed?
Is there an example of a movement which doesn’t give its members things to do, yet succeeds? / What do these movements do with people?
What are some questions regarding EAA which are amenable to being forecasted?
Is there a piece of technology which would make your work significantly easier, but which doesn’t exist yet?
In which ways, if any, are the ethical stances which you take counterintuitive to you? Are there ways in which you expect your ethical stances to be counterintuitive to others, and any ways you adjust for that?
That is evil, I like it.