How confident are you that it affects mainly older people or those with preexisting health conditions? Are the stats solid now? I vaguely recall that SARS and MERS (possibly the relevant reference class), were age agnostic.
Here’s a chart of odds of death by age that was tweeted by an epidmiology professor at Hopkins. I can’t otherwise vouch for the reliability of the data and caveat that mortality data sucks this early in an epidemic. https://twitter.com/JustinLessler/status/1222108497556279297
MERS was pretty age-agnostic. SARS had much higher mortality rates in >60s. All the current reports from China claim that it affects mainly older people or those with preexisting health conditions. Coronavirus is a broad class including everything from the common cold to MERS; not sure there’s good ground to anchor too closely to SARS or MERS as a reference class.
How confident are you that it affects mainly older people or those with preexisting health conditions? Are the stats solid now? I vaguely recall that SARS and MERS (possibly the relevant reference class), were age agnostic.
Here’s a chart of odds of death by age that was tweeted by an epidmiology professor at Hopkins. I can’t otherwise vouch for the reliability of the data and caveat that mortality data sucks this early in an epidemic. https://twitter.com/JustinLessler/status/1222108497556279297
Nice find! Hopefully it updates soon as we learn more. What is your interpretation of it in terms of mortality rate in each age bracket?
MERS was pretty age-agnostic. SARS had much higher mortality rates in >60s. All the current reports from China claim that it affects mainly older people or those with preexisting health conditions. Coronavirus is a broad class including everything from the common cold to MERS; not sure there’s good ground to anchor too closely to SARS or MERS as a reference class.