If the death rate is really that high, then we should significantly update P(it goes world scale pandemic) and P(a particular person gets it | it goes world scale pandemic) downwards as it would cause governments and individuals to put a lot of resources towards prevention.
One can also imagine that P(a particular person dies from it | a particular person gets it) will go down with time as resources are spent on finding better treatment and a cure.
Good points! I agree but I’m not sure how significant those effects will be though… Have an idea of how we’d in a principled precise way update based on those effects?
If the death rate is really that high, then we should significantly update P(it goes world scale pandemic) and P(a particular person gets it | it goes world scale pandemic) downwards as it would cause governments and individuals to put a lot of resources towards prevention.
One can also imagine that P(a particular person dies from it | a particular person gets it) will go down with time as resources are spent on finding better treatment and a cure.
Good points! I agree but I’m not sure how significant those effects will be though… Have an idea of how we’d in a principled precise way update based on those effects?
It’s difficult. You’d probably need a model of every country since state capacity, health care, information access… can vary widely.