I accepted a bet on January 30th with a friend with the above terms. Nobody else offered to bet me. Since then, I have updated my view. I now give a ~60% probability that there will be over 10,000 deaths. https://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​198256
I accepted a bet on January 30th with a friend with the above terms. Nobody else offered to bet me. Since then, I have updated my view. I now give a ~60% probability that there will be over 10,000 deaths. https://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​198256
My update is mostly based on (a) Metaculus’s estimate of the median number of deaths updating from ~3.5k to now slightly over ~10K (https://​​www.metaculus.com/​​questions/​​3530/​​how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-before-2021/​​) and also (b) some naive extrapolation of the possible total number of deaths based on the Feb 4th death data here: https://​​www.worldometers.info/​​coronavirus/​​coronavirus-death-toll/​​