I expect bets about a large number of Global Catastrophic Risks to be of great importance, and to similarly be perceived as “ghoulish” as you describe here.
The US government attempted to create a prediction market to predict terrorist attacks. It was shut down basically because it was perceived as “ghoulish”.
My impression is that experts think that shutting down the market made terrorism more likely, but I’m not super well-informed.
I see this as evidence both that 1) markets are useful and 2) some people (including influential people like senators) react pretty negatively to betting on life or death issues, despite the utility.
The US government attempted to create a prediction market to predict terrorist attacks. It was shut down basically because it was perceived as “ghoulish”.
My impression is that experts think that shutting down the market made terrorism more likely, but I’m not super well-informed.
I see this as evidence both that 1) markets are useful and 2) some people (including influential people like senators) react pretty negatively to betting on life or death issues, despite the utility.