Some slightly positive evidence: By the 24th, 19 cases had been reported outside of China, with onset of symptoms usually before that. Given the most recent estimate of a mean incubation period of 5 days, it seems surprising that only 1 of the 19 cases has infected another person that we know of so far (a man traveling from Wuhan to Vietnam infected his son, who shared a hotel room with his father for 3 days). Since monitoring of people the infected came into contact with is high, finding infected people should be fairly quick.
Seems that effective containment, a lower R0 than expected (both good), or a longer incubation period than previously assumed (bad) could be the reason.
Some slightly positive evidence: By the 24th, 19 cases had been reported outside of China, with onset of symptoms usually before that. Given the most recent estimate of a mean incubation period of 5 days, it seems surprising that only 1 of the 19 cases has infected another person that we know of so far (a man traveling from Wuhan to Vietnam infected his son, who shared a hotel room with his father for 3 days). Since monitoring of people the infected came into contact with is high, finding infected people should be fairly quick.
Seems that effective containment, a lower R0 than expected (both good), or a longer incubation period than previously assumed (bad) could be the reason.
Source for the 19 cases by the 24th: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yZv9w9zRKwrGTaR-YzmAqMefw4wMlaXocejdxZaTs6w/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true#