I would challenge your notion that you are over-analyzing the problem and that you must make a definitive decision soon.
1. In general, better knowledge and information leads to better decision making. If you are new to the EA community or to thinking deeply about philanthropy more generally, it is very unlikely that your current notions of how to give are appropriate.
2. Once you give away money, you cannot get it back. But money you save now can always be given away later. This argues for waiting in the presence of uncertainty. For example, in the optimal stopping Secretary Problem, you should see and just reject the first 37% of all candidates before you even begin your evaluation process.
3. There are tremendous consequences to your actions so you shouldn’t take this matter lightly. Going with your gut and intuition is not the appropriate response simply because you find your dilemmas to be difficult and overwhelming. Using GiveWell’s latest model, you can expect to save a life for probably $2500 or less. Since you have several hundred thousand pounds, you could save over 100 people with what you have. You could be like Oskar Schindler. Please don’t waste this precious opportunity.
I would challenge your notion that you are over-analyzing the problem and that you must make a definitive decision soon.
1. In general, better knowledge and information leads to better decision making. If you are new to the EA community or to thinking deeply about philanthropy more generally, it is very unlikely that your current notions of how to give are appropriate.
2. Once you give away money, you cannot get it back. But money you save now can always be given away later. This argues for waiting in the presence of uncertainty. For example, in the optimal stopping Secretary Problem, you should see and just reject the first 37% of all candidates before you even begin your evaluation process.
3. There are tremendous consequences to your actions so you shouldn’t take this matter lightly. Going with your gut and intuition is not the appropriate response simply because you find your dilemmas to be difficult and overwhelming. Using GiveWell’s latest model, you can expect to save a life for probably $2500 or less. Since you have several hundred thousand pounds, you could save over 100 people with what you have. You could be like Oskar Schindler. Please don’t waste this precious opportunity.