I think the question how much to give over time in such situation is a good one, and hope someone will write a carefully considered answer.
I’d like to push back a bit on this part of the reasong
I am persuaded that there is a case for local charities or those with which I have a personal connection because these cannot be on the radar of the big charity evaluators. And if everyone did this, and all surplus money were channelled to the “best” causes as assessed by self-appointed experts, I’m not convinced the world would be a better place. A bit, or a lot, of anarchy is needed, I think. Especially if the internet tendency to encourage information monopolies kicks in and everyone consults the same oracle.
We are certainly not in a world where everyone would consult effective altruist sources. On the contrary, I think the correct view is that basically everybody gives to local/familiar charities randomly and based on emotional appeal, and just a very tiny fraction of people is influenced by any rational advice at all. If you are considering EA viewpoint, you are an exception.
To put things in scale, the UK based “Dog Trust”, just one of many charities in the UK supporting pet wellfare, had an income £106.4m in 2017. In comparison, the Anti-malaria foundation, for many years a top charity in GiveWell lists, had an annual income just $46,8m. Obviously the dogs in the UK are closer to people there than the people AMF is helping.
So to a first approximation, I think you can say that almost nobody gives effectively, and everybody gives randomly to charities based on availability heuristics and similar. Based on this reasoning I would expect if you support more anarchy, you will basically do what everybody is doing anyway, and the impact of that will be small to negligible. I would expect giving to effective charities, EA funds, and EA meta-charities to be better for almost any goal you may have.
I think the question how much to give over time in such situation is a good one, and hope someone will write a carefully considered answer.
I’d like to push back a bit on this part of the reasong
We are certainly not in a world where everyone would consult effective altruist sources. On the contrary, I think the correct view is that basically everybody gives to local/familiar charities randomly and based on emotional appeal, and just a very tiny fraction of people is influenced by any rational advice at all. If you are considering EA viewpoint, you are an exception.
To put things in scale, the UK based “Dog Trust”, just one of many charities in the UK supporting pet wellfare, had an income £106.4m in 2017. In comparison, the Anti-malaria foundation, for many years a top charity in GiveWell lists, had an annual income just $46,8m. Obviously the dogs in the UK are closer to people there than the people AMF is helping.
So to a first approximation, I think you can say that almost nobody gives effectively, and everybody gives randomly to charities based on availability heuristics and similar. Based on this reasoning I would expect if you support more anarchy, you will basically do what everybody is doing anyway, and the impact of that will be small to negligible. I would expect giving to effective charities, EA funds, and EA meta-charities to be better for almost any goal you may have.
I’m sure you have a good point!