Assume that a social transition is expected in 40 years and the post transition society has 4x times as much welfare as a pre-transition society. Also assume that society will last for 1000 more years.
Increasing the rate of economic growth by a few percent might increase our welfare pre-transition by 5% and move up the transition by 2 years.
Then the welfare gain of the economic acceleration is (0.05*35)+(3*2)=8.
Future welfare without the acceleration is 40+(4*1000)=4040, so a gain of 8 is like reducing 0.2% existential risk.
Obviously the numbers are almost arbitrary but you should see the concepts at play.
Then if you think about a longer run future then the tradeoff becomes very different, with existential risk being far more important.
If society lasts for 1 million more years then the equivalent is 0.0002% X-risk.
Thanks for writing this. I’d love to see your napkin math
Assume that a social transition is expected in 40 years and the post transition society has 4x times as much welfare as a pre-transition society. Also assume that society will last for 1000 more years.
Increasing the rate of economic growth by a few percent might increase our welfare pre-transition by 5% and move up the transition by 2 years.
Then the welfare gain of the economic acceleration is (0.05*35)+(3*2)=8.
Future welfare without the acceleration is 40+(4*1000)=4040, so a gain of 8 is like reducing 0.2% existential risk.
Obviously the numbers are almost arbitrary but you should see the concepts at play.
Then if you think about a longer run future then the tradeoff becomes very different, with existential risk being far more important.
If society lasts for 1 million more years then the equivalent is 0.0002% X-risk.