Vasco Grilo🔸 comments on Red-teaming Holden Karnofsky’s AI timelines

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Thanks for commenting, Peter!

Your median estimate for the conservative and aggressive bioanchor reports in your table are accidentally flipped (2090 is the conservative median, not the aggressive one—and vice versa for 2040).

Corrected, thanks!

I don’t think it makes sense to deviate from Cotra’s best guess and create a mean out of aggregating between the conservative and aggressive estimates.

I agree. (Note the distribution we fitted to “Bio anchors” (row 4 of the 1st table of this section) only relies on Cotra’s “best guesses” for the probability of TAI by 2036 (18 %) and 2100 (80 %).)

The “Representativeness” section is very interesting and I’d love to see more timelines analyzed concretely and included in aggregations.

Thanks for the sources! Regarding the aggregation of forecasts, I thought this article to be quite interesting.