The below is from this Metaculus question about when a bio catastrophe is most likely to happen. This indicates that actually, the question referenced above might want to be interpreted in the context of bio risks being anticipate to accelerate drastically only after 2030 (that said, with only 35 forecasters we should not lean too heavily on only this forecast). So looking at warning shots before 2050 which includes some of the period of increased risk from 2030-2070 likely yields a higher chance of a warning shot:
The below is from this Metaculus question about when a bio catastrophe is most likely to happen. This indicates that actually, the question referenced above might want to be interpreted in the context of bio risks being anticipate to accelerate drastically only after 2030 (that said, with only 35 forecasters we should not lean too heavily on only this forecast). So looking at warning shots before 2050 which includes some of the period of increased risk from 2030-2070 likely yields a higher chance of a warning shot: