I agree that there’s greater uncertainty about the positive impact in the long term of what EA “rock stars” are doing (note—my use of the term does not indicate we should adopt it, I’m just using it as a placeholder). Yet the long-term impact can be said about the EA movement as a whole, of course.
My perspective is that people who are trying to do much more good than the typical EA − 100X—think much harder about their long-term impact and try to pick the best course of action. They might disagree with each other, but they would have spent a lot of time thinking through their options and choosing the ones they seriously consider the be the best ones going forward. My educated guess is that doing so is most likely to correlate with 100X positive outcomes.
Of course, this is not certain, and I acknowledge I should have been a bit more cautious in that statement to not convey certainty. Appreciate you calling me out on it!
That’s a fair point, and a good criticism!
I agree that there’s greater uncertainty about the positive impact in the long term of what EA “rock stars” are doing (note—my use of the term does not indicate we should adopt it, I’m just using it as a placeholder). Yet the long-term impact can be said about the EA movement as a whole, of course.
My perspective is that people who are trying to do much more good than the typical EA − 100X—think much harder about their long-term impact and try to pick the best course of action. They might disagree with each other, but they would have spent a lot of time thinking through their options and choosing the ones they seriously consider the be the best ones going forward. My educated guess is that doing so is most likely to correlate with 100X positive outcomes.
Of course, this is not certain, and I acknowledge I should have been a bit more cautious in that statement to not convey certainty. Appreciate you calling me out on it!