I was only thinking of the amount of money moved when I said that number. By EAs being more informed about principles of cause selection and mechanisms to do good in the world, their money will go much further. Second-order long term epistemic effects of the movement being populated with more involved and serious people are difficult to quantify but probably significant.
The 3-6x number was a vague guess. I would revise it to 10x, 20x or more for averages.
Fair enough :-) What are your motivations for giving a different number? What do you think is closer to the truth and why do you think so?
I was only thinking of the amount of money moved when I said that number. By EAs being more informed about principles of cause selection and mechanisms to do good in the world, their money will go much further. Second-order long term epistemic effects of the movement being populated with more involved and serious people are difficult to quantify but probably significant.
Cool, thanks for sharing that!