Did you ever get round to running the analysis with your best guess inputs?
If that revealed substantial decision uncertainty (and especially if you were very uncertain about your inputs), I’d also like to see it run with GiveWell’s inputs. They could be aggregated distributions from multiple staff members, elicited using standard methods, or in some cases perhaps ‘official’ GiveWell consensus distributions. I’m kind of surprised this doesn’t seem to have been done already, given obvious issues with using point estimates in non-linear models. Or do you have reason to believe the ranking and cost-effectiveness ratios would not be sensitive to methodological changes like this?
Did you ever get round to running the analysis with your best guess inputs?
If that revealed substantial decision uncertainty (and especially if you were very uncertain about your inputs), I’d also like to see it run with GiveWell’s inputs. They could be aggregated distributions from multiple staff members, elicited using standard methods, or in some cases perhaps ‘official’ GiveWell consensus distributions. I’m kind of surprised this doesn’t seem to have been done already, given obvious issues with using point estimates in non-linear models. Or do you have reason to believe the ranking and cost-effectiveness ratios would not be sensitive to methodological changes like this?