I think this is evidence for a groupthink phenomenon amongst superforecasters. Interestingly my other experiences talking with superforecasters have also made me update in this direction (they seemed much more groupthinky than I expected, as if they were deferring to each other a lot. Which, come to think of it, makes perfect sense—I imagine if I were participating in forecasting tournaments, I’d gradually learn to reflexively defer to superforecasters too, since they genuinely would be performing well.)
Thanks!
I think this is evidence for a groupthink phenomenon amongst superforecasters. Interestingly my other experiences talking with superforecasters have also made me update in this direction (they seemed much more groupthinky than I expected, as if they were deferring to each other a lot. Which, come to think of it, makes perfect sense—I imagine if I were participating in forecasting tournaments, I’d gradually learn to reflexively defer to superforecasters too, since they genuinely would be performing well.)