I’m not sure what my estimate would be—probably ballpark of a marginal $1 buying 1/500M of a counterfactual election in a race with as much money as this one and where the candidate was a dark horse, more effective in races with less money already or where the race was closer. To actually make an estimate I’d feel comfortable with, I’d have to look for studies on the effect of money on elections; if studies gave a consistent picture, there wouldn’t really be any more work to do.
I’m not sure what my estimate would be—probably ballpark of a marginal $1 buying 1/500M of a counterfactual election in a race with as much money as this one and where the candidate was a dark horse, more effective in races with less money already or where the race was closer. To actually make an estimate I’d feel comfortable with, I’d have to look for studies on the effect of money on elections; if studies gave a consistent picture, there wouldn’t really be any more work to do.