This is why I suggest the marginal dollar is only 1⁄10 as effective as the avg dollar. I don’t have any particular reason to think my est is off by an order of magnitude or more. If you do I’d like to hear it, and I suspect so would every campaign in the world.
Um, $5.7B was spent on the 2020 presidential election, and I have no idea where “Takes about a billion to win” comes from? Marginal spending doesn’t have much effect in presidential elections.
“Doesn’t have much effect” is too vague a statement to be meaningful. 1/1b increase in chance of winning is simultaneously “not much” and also enough to spend money on where the consequences are large enough.
This is why I suggest the marginal dollar is only 1⁄10 as effective as the avg dollar. I don’t have any particular reason to think my est is off by an order of magnitude or more. If you do I’d like to hear it, and I suspect so would every campaign in the world.
Um, $5.7B was spent on the 2020 presidential election, and I have no idea where “Takes about a billion to win” comes from? Marginal spending doesn’t have much effect in presidential elections.
Joe Biden raised 1.69 bn, Trump 1.96 b https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election. Little more than I thought but not a whole OOM. Closer to 1b than 10b. Call it 2bn to win if u prefer.
“Doesn’t have much effect” is too vague a statement to be meaningful. 1/1b increase in chance of winning is simultaneously “not much” and also enough to spend money on where the consequences are large enough.