I mistakenly included my response to another comment, I’m pasting it below.
I would guess the scientific breakthrough that led to nuclear weapons would have been almost impossible to predict unless you were Einstein or Einstein-adjacent.
Great point—Leo Szilard foresaw nuclear weapons and collaborated with Einstein to persuade FDR to start the Manhattan Project. Szilard would have done extremely well in a Tetlock scenario. However, this also conforms with my point—Szilard was able to successfully predict because he was privy to the relevant discoveries. The remainder of the task was largely engineering (again, not to belittle those discoveries). I think this also applies to superforecasters—they become like Szilard, learning of the relevant discoveries and then foreseeing the engineering steps.
Regarding sci-fi, Szilard appears to have been influenced by HG Wells The World Set Free in 1913. But HG Wells was not just a writer—he was familiar with the state of atomic physics and therefore many of the relevant discoveries—he even dedicated the book to an atomic scientist. And Wells’s “atomic bombs” were lumps of a radioactive substance that issued energy from a chain reaction, not a huge stretch from what was already known at the time. It’s pretty incredible that Szilard later is credited with foreseeing nuclear chain reactions in 1933 shortly after the discovery of neutrons, and he was likely influenced by Wells. So Wells is a great thinker, and this nicely illustrated how knowledge grows, by excellent guesses refined by criticism/experiment. But I don’t think we are seeing knowledge of discoveries before they are discovered.
Szilard’s prediction in 1939 is a lot different than a similar prediction in 1839. Any statement about weapons in 1839 is like Thomas Malthus’s predictions in a state of utter ignorance and unknowability about the eventual discoveries relevant to his forecast (nitrogen fixation and genetic modification of crops).
And this is also the case with discoveries in the long term from now.
Objections to my post read to me like “but people have forecasted things shortly before they have appeared.” True, but those forecasts already have much of the relevant discoveries already factored in, though largely invisible to non-experts.
Szilard must have seemed like a prophet to someone unfamiliar with the state of nuclear physics. You could understand a Tetlock who find these seeming prophets among us and declares that some amount of prophesy is indeed possible. But to Wells, Szilard was just making a reasonable step from Wells’s idea, which was a reasonable step from earlier discoveries.
As for science fiction writers in general, that’s interesting. Obviously, selection effects will be strong (stories that turn out true will become famous), and good science fiction writers are more familiar with the state of the science than others. And finally, it’s one thing to make a great guess about the future. It’s entirely different to quantify the likelihood of this guess—I doubt even Jules Verne would try to put a number on the likelihood that submarines would eventually be developed.
I mistakenly included my response to another comment, I’m pasting it below.
Great point—Leo Szilard foresaw nuclear weapons and collaborated with Einstein to persuade FDR to start the Manhattan Project. Szilard would have done extremely well in a Tetlock scenario. However, this also conforms with my point—Szilard was able to successfully predict because he was privy to the relevant discoveries. The remainder of the task was largely engineering (again, not to belittle those discoveries). I think this also applies to superforecasters—they become like Szilard, learning of the relevant discoveries and then foreseeing the engineering steps.
Regarding sci-fi, Szilard appears to have been influenced by HG Wells The World Set Free in 1913. But HG Wells was not just a writer—he was familiar with the state of atomic physics and therefore many of the relevant discoveries—he even dedicated the book to an atomic scientist. And Wells’s “atomic bombs” were lumps of a radioactive substance that issued energy from a chain reaction, not a huge stretch from what was already known at the time. It’s pretty incredible that Szilard later is credited with foreseeing nuclear chain reactions in 1933 shortly after the discovery of neutrons, and he was likely influenced by Wells. So Wells is a great thinker, and this nicely illustrated how knowledge grows, by excellent guesses refined by criticism/experiment. But I don’t think we are seeing knowledge of discoveries before they are discovered.
Szilard’s prediction in 1939 is a lot different than a similar prediction in 1839. Any statement about weapons in 1839 is like Thomas Malthus’s predictions in a state of utter ignorance and unknowability about the eventual discoveries relevant to his forecast (nitrogen fixation and genetic modification of crops).
And this is also the case with discoveries in the long term from now.
Objections to my post read to me like “but people have forecasted things shortly before they have appeared.” True, but those forecasts already have much of the relevant discoveries already factored in, though largely invisible to non-experts.
Szilard must have seemed like a prophet to someone unfamiliar with the state of nuclear physics. You could understand a Tetlock who find these seeming prophets among us and declares that some amount of prophesy is indeed possible. But to Wells, Szilard was just making a reasonable step from Wells’s idea, which was a reasonable step from earlier discoveries.
As for science fiction writers in general, that’s interesting. Obviously, selection effects will be strong (stories that turn out true will become famous), and good science fiction writers are more familiar with the state of the science than others. And finally, it’s one thing to make a great guess about the future. It’s entirely different to quantify the likelihood of this guess—I doubt even Jules Verne would try to put a number on the likelihood that submarines would eventually be developed.