We think there is a reasonable risk that Connor and Conjecture’s outreach to policymakers and media is alarmist and may decrease the credibility of x-risk.
One question that seems worth considering in this context: Couldn’t a more “alarmist” tone in the outreach of Conjecture/Connor contribute to more moderate calls for regulation sounding more reasonable by comparison? This is arguably what happened with Linus Pauling during nuclear non-proliferation activism in the 50′s and 60′s.
(Pauling sued the Eisenhower administration for risking his life and the rest of the population’s by exposing them to nuclear test fallout. He later sued the Kennedy administration as well.
Along with other antinuclear activists, Pauling participated in a picket outside the White House several times under Kennedy. Instead of advocating for disarmament solely within the government, where he would have been limited to technical arguments, Pauling played a key role in building a significant antinuclear movement that relied on his moral and scientific authority rather than access to policymakers. As a result, Pauling’s activism took an extreme position, which in turn made mainstream disarmament efforts appear more moderate by comparison. )
On a macro-level you could consider extreme AI Safety asks followed by moderate asks to be an example of the Door-in-the-face technique (which has a psychological basis and seems to have replicated)
One question that seems worth considering in this context: Couldn’t a more “alarmist” tone in the outreach of Conjecture/Connor contribute to more moderate calls for regulation sounding more reasonable by comparison?
This is arguably what happened with Linus Pauling during nuclear non-proliferation activism in the 50′s and 60′s.
(Pauling sued the Eisenhower administration for risking his life and the rest of the population’s by exposing them to nuclear test fallout. He later sued the Kennedy administration as well.
Along with other antinuclear activists, Pauling participated in a picket outside the White House several times under Kennedy. Instead of advocating for disarmament solely within the government, where he would have been limited to technical arguments, Pauling played a key role in building a significant antinuclear movement that relied on his moral and scientific authority rather than access to policymakers. As a result, Pauling’s activism took an extreme position, which in turn made mainstream disarmament efforts appear more moderate by comparison. )
On a macro-level you could consider extreme AI Safety asks followed by moderate asks to be an example of the Door-in-the-face technique (which has a psychological basis and seems to have replicated)